Global climatic change – the latest scientific understanding     

Bruce A. Callander 《GeoJournal》1997,42(1):55-63

IPCCs statement in its 1995 report (IPCC 1996) that a human influence was discernible in global climate has been widely quoted but often misunderstood. The character of the evidence underpinning this detection statement is explained so that its strengths and weaknesses can be better understood and the subtleties of its message better appreciated. To demonstrate the close linkage between the government-approved summary and the underlying chapters of the IPCC report the detailed evolution of the detection statement from first draft through to the form finally approved by the IPCC is described.  相似文献   

成都城市发展对热岛强度影响的主成份回归分析     

石凤云  唐佑民 《成都信息工程学院学报》1991,(Z1)

本文对成都市总人口、建成区面积等11个因子、作了主成份回归L-S估计和M-估计,讨论了成都城市发展对“热岛”强度的主要影响因子。结果表明,城区房屋建筑面积及总人口数是影响城市气候(气温)的主要因子,其次为城市人口总户数、建成面积等。 文中,对回归方程进行了拟合计算,回归效果比较满意(尤其是稳健回归)。  相似文献   

新疆博州地区近46年来的气候变化特征   总被引：23，自引：4，他引：23  

辛渝  张广兴  张新  博力健 《干旱区地理》2006,29(2):193-200

根据新疆博尔塔拉蒙古自治州(简称博州,下同)四个气象代表站点的气温及降水资料,利用线性趋势函数及t检验法分析了该地区近46年的气候变化。结果表明,博州年平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,而且平均最低气温上升的幅度远大于平均最高气温的上升幅度。年平均气温及年平均最低气温约在20世纪80年代中期出现了显著的均值突变,而年平均最高气温在80年代末出现突变;除春、夏季平均最高气温无明显变化趋势外,其它各季平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温均呈上升趋势,其中均以冬季增幅最大,秋季次之;80年代冬夜升温最强劲,90年代则明显减弱;夏季的平均气温与平均最低气温均在70年代中期出现突变,比其它任何突变时间都早;暖温年多发生在80年代后,冷温年多发生在20世纪60年代、70年代。年降水量略呈上升趋势,少雨年多在60年代、70年代,多雨年多在近20年,除春季外,其余各季降水略有上升趋势。  相似文献   

Weathering and climate change since l820 AD in Hoh Xil, Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, China——Evidence from element geochemistry of lake sediments of Gulug Co Lake     

吴艳宏李世杰  夏威岚 《中国地球化学学报》2006,25(1):56-61

Element geochemistry of lake sediments has been widely used to detect climate change because element composition and ratios can reflect the weathering degree in the source area. Given the dement composition of lake sediments from Gulug Co Lake, Hoh Xil, Qing- hai-Xizang Plateau, chemical index of alteration （CIA）, index of composition variability （ICV） and other element ratios have been used to establish the weathering sequence of this area since 1820 AD. The weathering is so weak that the element composition change is more sensitive to climate change and autochthonous processes. From 1820 to 1984 AD, there were two drier periods with a wetter interval from 1870 to 1945 AD. After 1984 the weather showed a tendency of becoming wet.  相似文献   

Synchronism of Holocene East Asian monsoon variations and North Atlantic drift-ice tracers   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：3  

Stephen C. Porter  Zhou Weijian 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(3):443-449

Eighteen radiocarbon-dated eolian and paleosol profiles within a 1500-km-long belt along the arid to semi-arid transition zone of north-central China record variations in the extent and strength of the East Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene. Dated paleosols and peat layers represent intervals when the zone was dominated by a mild, moist summer monsoon climate that favored pedogenesis and peat accumulation. Brief intervals of enhanced eolian activity that resulted in the deposition of loess and eolian sand were times when strengthened winter monsoon conditions produced a colder, drier climate. The monsoon variations correlate closely with variations in North Atlantic drift-ice tracers that represent episodic advection of drift ice and cold polar surface water southward and eastward into warmer subpolar water. The correspondence of these records over the full span of Holocene time implies a close relationship between North Atlantic climate and the monsoon climate of central China.  相似文献   

Timing of the late-glacial climate reversal in the Southern Hemisphere using high-resolution radiocarbon chronology for Kaipo bog, New Zealand     

Irka Hajdas  David J. Lowe  Georges Bonani 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):340-345

The pattern of climate change in the Southern Hemisphere during the Younger Dryas (YD) chronozone provides essential constraint on mechanisms of abrupt climate change only if accurate, high-precision chronologies are obtained. A climate reversal reported previously at Kaipo bog, New Zealand, had been dated between 13,600 and 12,600 cal yr B.P. and appeared to asynchronously overlap the YD chron, but the chronology, based on conventionally radiocarbon-dated bulk sediment samples, left the precise timing questionable. We report a new high-resolution AMS ¹⁴C chronology for the Kaipo record that confirms the original chronology and provides further evidence for a mid-latitude Southern Ocean cooling event dated between 13,800 and 12,400 cal yr B.P. (2σ range), roughly equivalent to the Antarctic Cold Reversal.  相似文献   

Abrupt climate change: An alternative view   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Carl Wunsch 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):191-203

Hypotheses and inferences concerning the nature of abrupt climate change, exemplified by the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, are reviewed. There is little concrete evidence that these events are more than a regional Greenland phenomenon. The partial coherence of ice core δ¹⁸O and CH₄ is a possible exception. Claims, however, of D-O presence in most remote locations cannot be distinguished from the hypothesis that many regions are just exhibiting temporal variability in climate proxies with approximately similar frequency content. Further suggestions that D-O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat. A more likely scenario is that changes in the ocean circulation are a consequence of wind shifts. The disappearance of D-O events in the Holocene coincides with the disappearance also of the Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets. It is thus suggested that D-O events are a consequence of interactions of the windfield with the continental ice sheets and that better understanding of the wind field in the glacial periods is the highest priority. Wind fields are capable of great volatility and very rapid global-scale teleconnections, and they are efficient generators of oceanic circulation changes and (more speculatively) of multiple states relative to great ice sheets. Connection of D-O events to the possibility of modern abrupt climate change rests on a very weak chain of assumptions.  相似文献   

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence     

P. González-Sampériz  B.L. Valero-Garcés  G. Jalut  C. Martí-Bono  A. Navas  J.J. Dedoubat 《Quaternary Research》2006,66(1):38-52

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.  相似文献   

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using GIS     

Anwar B. Al-helal  Jasem M. Al-awadhi 《Environmental Geology》2006,49(7):960-967

Assessment of sand encroachment in Kuwait using Geographical Information System (GIS) technology has been formulated as a Multi-Criteria Decision Making problem. The Delphi method and Analytical Hierarchy Process were adopted as evaluating techniques, in which experts’ judgments were analyzed for objectively estimating and weighting control factors. Seven triggering factors, depicted in the form of maps, were identified and ordered according to their priority. These factors are (1) wind energy; (2) surface sediment; (3) vegetation density; (4) land use; (5) drainage density; (6) topographic change and (7) vegetation type. The factor maps were digitized, converted to raster data and overlaid to determine their possible spatial relationships. Applying a susceptibility model, a map of sand encroachment susceptibility in Kuwait was developed. The map showed that the areas of very high and high sand encroachment susceptibility are located within the main corridor of sand pathway that coincides with the northwesterly dominant wind direction.  相似文献   

青藏高原不同时段气候变化的研究综述     

李潮流  康世昌 《地理学报(英文版)》2006,16(3):337-345

1 Introduction The annual mean world temperature increased by about 0.6℃ from the late 1800s to the 1980s (Wang, 1994). The global environmental change is marked with “global warming” and its possible effects on the ecosystem as well as the production …  相似文献